Peak shipping season 2025: resilient supply chains make the difference

The transition from summer to autumn is always a critical time for global logistics. It marks the beginning of the peak shipping season, when goods destined for Black Friday, Christmas and other holidays begin flowing to end markets. What sets this year’s season apart?

Over the past several months, Poland’s economy has shown clear signs of recovery. This has translated into stronger consumption: according to the latest GUS data, Poland’s GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 3.4% year-on-year, while private consumption accelerated to 4.4%. This signals that consumers will be keen to buy even more, and retailers must ensure the availability of goods during Black Friday and the holiday season. In such an environment, choosing the right solutions to guarantee stable supply chains becomes critical.

The approach to supply chain management has visibly changed. Last year, peak volumes – particularly in sea freight – began around two weeks earlier than in previous years, driven by disruptions to the Suez Canal. Some companies started shipping Christmas goods as early as June. This year we also observe a more evenly spread peak season and greater modal diversification. But this is no longer a short-term reaction to isolated crises – it is part of consciously building resilience.

2025 has brought supply chains into a new level of geopolitical turbulence, both in scale and speed. The U.S. trade policy has introduced more barriers to the global free market, directly affecting how businesses – including logistics providers – operate. Ensuring production and distribution continuity is now crucial to capture the surge in consumer demand expected in November and December. This year’s peak season is a powerful reminder of how important it is to invest in resilient supply chains.

First signs of peaks in sea and rail freight

Sea transport accounts for roughly 90% of global trade and thus plays the central role during peak shipping season. It is also the most exposed to geopolitical risks. Once again this year, we see a more evenly distributed flow of maritime shipments, without the sharp seasonal spikes of earlier years. There are many reasons. The closure of the Suez Canal continues to extend transit times from Asia to Europe by around two weeks. Businesses also remember the impact of tariff disruptions earlier this year on the maritime market. In spring, announced U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced flows on the China–US route by up to 50%, which in turn shifted capacity and pushed freight rates down on Asia–Europe lanes. When tariffs were temporarily suspended in summer, the effect reversed – imports from China to the US surged by around 200% in June–July, tightening European capacity and driving up prices. Currently, rates are relatively stable and even trending downward, but this situation could change quickly.

China’s domestic economy also shapes global flows. Factories there have been running at full speed since early summer to prepare shipments ahead of November sales and Christmas. But the upcoming Golden Week (1–8 October) – when factories and offices shut down for an entire week – forces exporters to ship goods in advance. This creates the well-known front-loading effect, with rising freight rates and growing space constraints from mid-September. Securing capacity early is therefore essential. For European and Polish companies, Golden Week means planning even earlier and with greater precision.

Traditionally, carriers attempt to raise rates in November, but this year the persistent oversupply of vessels limits their ability to do so sustainably. Compared with 2024, shipments are more evenly distributed, which helps ports and fleets manage capacity more effectively, though the market remains highly sensitive to sudden demand surges.

To mitigate these risks, importers spread shipments across sea freight while continuing to use rail for a portion of volumes – especially goods sensitive to transit times. This strategy, adopted during the Red Sea crisis, remains relevant today and is reflected in this year’s peaks.

E-commerce fuels air freight

Air freight continues to be the main alternative for shipments from Asia. Because of its shorter transit time compared with sea or rail, it is usually used at scale later in the peak season – around late October and November. Still, volumes are expected to grow year-on-year. Demand is being driven primarily by e-commerce giants, who pre-book a significant share of global air cargo capacity for pre-holiday sales. Between 2020 and 2023, the number of online purchases in Poland grew by an average of 5% annually, while the average basket value increased from PLN 233 to PLN 304. This trend directly affects logistics: more frequent orders and higher-value baskets translate into intensified delivery demand, especially in the holiday season.

Air carriers are also responding to the rising demand for cargo. At the end of September, Suparna Airlines will launch a new regular connection from Nanjing (eastern China) to Warsaw, operated by a Boeing 747-400F freighter. Initially scheduled at two weekly flights, the frequency is expected to increase over time.

It is worth remembering that air freight is the only alternative to sea transport when shipping from Southeast Asia. From Bangladesh or Vietnam, no rail option to Europe exists, making air transport indispensable for key industries such as fashion and electronics. Much like China–Europe rail, air freight from these regions has now become a permanent fixture in many companies’ logistics portfolios.

Another seasonal challenge is the transition of airlines’ schedules from summer to autumn/winter, which reduces available services by around 10%. This naturally limits capacity, making it even more important to plan air shipments well in advance.

Warehousing, co-packing and distribution

This year, businesses are clearly focused on building inventory closer to end markets. This is a key element of distribution continuity, especially important during the intense autumn–winter sales period. As early as summer, clients from industries such as household appliances signaled growing warehousing needs – which is now confirmed. We also see a rising trend of relocating parts of production closer to destination markets. Goods currently imported from distant regions may in coming years be produced in Poland or other CEE countries. This will increase demand for warehousing space, both for finished goods and components. The nearshoring trend is gaining momentum.

At the same time, value-added services in warehouses are becoming increasingly important – a trend visible in our operations for some time, and one we expect to accelerate further this season. As markets prepare for Black Friday, Christmas and other sales peaks, the ability to quickly assemble promotional bundles, co-pack, label or prepare display stands directly in logistics centers becomes invaluable. It allows businesses to react flexibly to marketing campaigns, optimize costs and shorten time-to-market. Logistics operators who provide not only transportation but also warehousing and VAS solutions clearly gain a competitive edge.

Logistics is a system of communicating vessels – higher volumes in sea, rail and air freight, combined with expanded inventories, naturally translate into increased demand for road transport, both domestically and internationally. However, given shorter distances, this will be most visible right before and during consumer peaks.

2025 puts strategies to the test

There is no one-size-fits-all solution in logistics. Operators must be ready to adapt to their clients’ diverse strategies – some choose to ship earlier by sea to secure availability, others intensify use of air freight to bring e-commerce goods quickly to market, while rail continues to play a key role for time-sensitive cargo. At the same time, demand for customs services, warehousing and support with nearshoring projects is growing, all aimed at shortening supply chains and strengthening resilience to disruptions. Logistics has therefore become more strategic than ever.

In this environment, competitive advantage belongs to integrated logistics operators who can combine different transport modes, operate across local and global markets, provide customs and warehousing solutions, and advise clients in strategic planning. They are becoming true partners in building flexible, resilient supply chains – capable of withstanding time pressure and adapting to the unpredictable realities of global trade.