Global logistics in the rhythm of Chinese New Year 2026

Chinese New Year (CNY), which this year falls on 17 February, is the most important and most ceremonious holiday in Chinese culture. However, its rhythm affects not only social life in China, but also, in a very tangible way, the functioning of the global economy. The scale of China’s impact on global supply chains means that the effects of this period are felt on all continents. It is worth remembering that China is currently a key non-EU import partner for European markets, including the Central and Eastern Europe region. It is precisely this structural dependence that makes the impact of Chinese New Year clearly visible in our region. Rohlig SUUS Logistics operates through its subsidiaries, among others, in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia, which is why we observe these dependencies very clearly in our day-to-day operational activities.

During Chinese New Year, there is a production shutdown lasting more than a dozen days, during which employees leave factories, often travelling many hours to their family hometowns. A large number of manufacturing plants are completely closed during this period, and the return to full production capacity takes place gradually, also after the official holidays end. Therefore, companies around the world must take this period into account when planning production, deliveries and inventory building.

What do global supply chains look like in the context of CNY 2026?

Currently, we see that companies are approaching the period preceding Chinese New Year in a more planned and time-distributed manner. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty in international trade, the situation in global supply chains ahead of CNY remains relatively stable and follows well-known patterns, also observed during last year’s autumn peak seasons. Import activity from China is increased, but it does not take the form of a sudden, short-term peak – shipments are more evenly spread over time, and the market operates in a more orderly and predictable way. Maritime transport, which remains the primary mode of global trade exchange, is currently carried out without significant disruptions in terms of capacity availability, and after previous increases, we are rather observing a correction in freight rates than further upward pressure.

It should be emphasized, however, that the current seasonality ahead of CNY operates within a broader context of global changes in trade. The year 2025 was largely defined by growing protectionist policies, particularly resulting from actions taken by the US administration in the area of customs tariffs. For over a year, global business has been facing increased unpredictability – successive tariffs being introduced, temporarily suspended, and announcements of new trade barriers. This largely affects China and translates into a decline in sales of local products on the US market, alongside an increase in flows on the China-Europe route, which is reflected in the structure of maritime freight operations. This context means that companies increasingly diversify shipping directions and timing, spreading volumes over time and adapting their supply chains to a changing regulatory environment, which is clearly visible ahead of Chinese New Year. At the same time, volumes are also growing on routes from ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, as well as from Taiwan, towards the US market, which further influences the balance of power in global trade.

Another significant phenomenon is the change in interest in rail services on the China-Europe route. We observed an increase in rail volumes after December 2023, in response to the crisis in the Red Sea and the extension of maritime transit times to Europe. Currently, however, it is evident that many companies have adjusted their business processes – production, distribution and inventory levels – to longer maritime transport times. Of course, in the period preceding Chinese New Year, we observe a moderate revival of interest in rail transport, particularly in the less-than-container-load (LCL) segment, but demand for rail is lower than two years ago. It is also worth noting that lower interest in rail freight, and consequently more competitive rates, may represent a business opportunity for importers who, encouraged by lower prices, decide to shift part of their volumes to rail and use this option as an element of supply chain diversification, also on routes other than China-Europe.

Traditionally, logistical trends are visible last in air transport, which, due to the shortest transit time, is used at the final stage of delivery planning. This applies primarily to fresh goods, high-value cargo and the e-commerce sector, which remains one of the main growth drivers of the air cargo market. Air transport also serves as a solution for urgent shipments in other industries that need to meet critical delivery deadlines, including in the context of Chinese New Year. As in maritime transport, we are currently observing an increase in air freight volumes from China to Europe, although it is not a sudden or extraordinary peak. This translates, as standard, into higher prices, especially as we are operating within winter flight schedules, which offer around 10% fewer passenger flights than in the summer season. This has a direct impact on cargo capacity availability, as a significant portion of freight is carried in the baggage holds of passenger aircraft (so-called belly cargo).

A more complete picture of the situation in global supply chains is also provided by operations in the area of customs services. The continued interest in this area, which we are currently observing, reflects increased logistics activity in the period preceding Chinese New Year. For clients, efficient and predictable customs procedures remain key, regardless of the mode of transport used for imports. Clearance efficiency has a direct impact on the smooth functioning of the entire supply chain, especially during seasonal periods such as CNY.

In summary, Chinese New Year 2026 does not bring a sudden shock to global supply chains. Instead of a short, intense peak, similar to the autumn peak seasons, we are observing more time-distributed seasonality, more stable operations, and a market that has learned to function in conditions of heightened uncertainty.