There is no boredom at sea: about changes in maritime business in 2025

Maritime freight plays a key role in global trade. According to the IMO (International Maritime Organization), about 80-90% of global trade is carried out by this service. Maritime shipping not only connects markets from different continents but also plays an important geopolitical role. This is confirmed by the events of the last 2-3 years. Climatic factors such as the drought limiting the capacity of the Panama Canal and attacks by Yemeni militants in the Suez Canal show that the turbulence of the maritime freight market directly affect global business. Therefore, access to key crossings and routes is a strategic resource for many countries, it is there to be or not to be in international trade. And what is the situation at sea at the beginning of 2025?

A change in shipowner alliances from February 2025 is expected to improve the timeliness of ships

Starting in February of this year, the global ocean freight market is about to undergo a real revolution due to a change in shipowner alliances. The 2M alliance formed by MSC and Maersk has ended, and a new one, Gemini Cooperation, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has begun its activities. However, this new alliance is not just a tightening of cooperation between the two market players, which we have seen more than once. 

Gemini Cooperation is introducing an innovative transportation concept based on rope connections between hub ports. Instead of the current loop system, ships will call at fewer ports, and transport between selected larger hub ports and the rest of the terminals will be carried out by shuttle vessels. With this solution, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd hope to improve ship on-time performance, which is the shipowner market's biggest challenge and currently stands at only 53% (data for 2024). According to the new alliance, it is expected to rise to 90% after the first year of operation. It is also worth noting that the choice of hub terminals is not accidental – in most of them, Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd hold a stake. As a result, the shipowners assume that the Gemini alliance will be prioritized in operational service. This is an interesting solution that we will be watching closely.

The new concept is not without challenges. One risk is the possibility of congestion at hub ports, especially when cargo volumes are high. The list of 12 key ports of the two shipowners includes: Hamburg, Rotterdam, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, New York, New Jersey or Los Angeles. These terminals have undoubtedly been selected to efficiently handle large volumes. However, historical data shows operational difficulties, for example, in Hamburg.

In addition, the maritime market has also had an alliance since February – the Premier Alliance, formed by HMM (Hyundai Merchant Marine), ONE (Ocean Network Express) and Yang Ming. This alliance is also cooperating with MSC on some destinations under a space-sharing agreement. The last-mentioned shipowner, MSC, on the other hand, after the 2M alliance ended, decided to pursue its “Standalone Services” project, under which it operates independently around the world. In some cases, however, it signs local agreements, such as with Premier Alliance.
The competition's reaction to the aforementioned alliance changes also includes the extension of the Ocean Alliance agreement (a cooperation of shipowners that includes CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping, Evergreen and OOCL, among others) until 2032.

Changes in the world's seas and what they mean for Polish business

The Gemini hub port network does not include any Polish ports – starting in February, Gdansk and Gdynia will be served by shuttle vessels connecting to German ports. For the past 10 years, since February 2015, Maersk has been calling at Gdansk, but the new project changes this, marking a historic shift. However, neither customers nor businesses will be negatively affected. Why? The improved schedule reliability within the Gemini system is also expected to apply to smaller destination terminals. On the other hand, other shipping lines continue to call at Polish ports. For instance, MSC recently introduced two new services from Asia to Gdansk – Albatros and Britannia.

Polish seaports are developing dynamically. They are a gateway for our economy in trade, and economic data for 2025 show growth forecasts. Last year, Polish seaports achieved record financial and operational results. According to the Ministry of Infrastructure, the total net profit of the largest ports increased by 26%, reaching PLN 551.7 million compared to 2023. Polish ports handled a total of 135 million tons of goods, of which container transshipments increased by more than 9%, reaching a record level of 3.27 million TEUs  .

Poland is gaining importance as Europe’s logistics hub, supported by several factors, including the development of the Black Sea Banana concept – a rapidly growing logistics and manufacturing corridor stretching from Poland through Central and Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, Turkey, the Caucasus, and into Central Asia. The reconstruction of Ukraine and the further development of the entire CEE region are also crucial. Ports play a key role in this process, making their expansion and capacity growth essential, as seen in Swinoujscie and Gdansk. Additionally, well-developed transport infrastructure is necessary to ensure efficient cargo flow. In this context, rail and intermodal transport are becoming increasingly important. Currently, investments are planned for railway construction in Szczecin and Swinoujscie to improve port access and enhance operational efficiency.

The Panama Canal is heating emotions not only in the Americas

The importance of this last point became evident last month, partly due to statements made by former President Donald Trump. The Panama Canal is a key passage for international maritime transport, but it is primarily a vital trade artery for North America. Spanning over 80 km, the canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, significantly reducing maritime transport time. For example, the route from New York to San Francisco is shortened by over 14,000 km thanks to this passage. Annually, the canal handles nearly 14,000 transits, accounting for approximately 5-6% of global trade. It is important to note that the canal is particularly significant for relatively less critical global trade routes, such as those from Europe to the West Coast of North and South America, as well as from Asia to the East Coast of the U.S.

For several years, China has been investing heavily in infrastructure surrounding the canal as part of its broader economic expansion strategy in Latin America. Chinese companies not only manage ports but are also building large-scale logistics parks along the canal.

The consequences of a U.S. takeover of the Panama Canal would thus extend far beyond the Americas, affecting global logistics, trade dynamics and geopolitical relations, much like the issues of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China or potentially the European Union, on which the US administration is taking initial action. However, in this case it is still speculation. 

Transportation from Asia: the Chinese New Year and the Suez Canal

The beginning of February is also the period of the Chinese New Year, which this year falls exactly from January 29 to February 12. This is the moment when factories stop their operations and employees return, often many miles away, to their hometowns. For logistics, the period leading up to this holiday is a moment of heightened intensity. However, this year, due to, among other things, a new alliance of operators, but also the crisis in the Red Sea, we have seen a shift in shipping peaks about a month earlier. A similar “acceleration” of operations was seen in the airline business on the Asia-Europe route.

In the context of the Red Sea, it is noteworthy that the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has rekindled hopes for the use of the Suez Canal crossing, as already reported in the media. What could this mean for the maritime market? Restoring the crossing could trigger an oversupply of cargo space. On the one hand, we would have ships that were already going around Africa and could not turn back to take advantage of the unblocked Suez Canal. On the other hand, there would also be ships left at sea that sailed later and, taking advantage of the crossing, would reach their destination faster. This situation could end up with similar arrival times at ports in Europe, potentially causing congestion. Where do these predictions come from? We have already seen such an event when the container ship Ever Given in 2021 got stuck in the Suez Canal.

It may also happen that shipowners will continue to offer service around Africa. Why? On the one hand, the Suez Canal crossing may become a premium service to Europe – faster, but more expensive. On the other hand, many companies may want to continue to transport at least some volume via the Cape of Good Hope route. This would allow them to maintain the continuity of their supply chains in case the Suez Canal crossing is closed again or impeded. However, for the time being, these are only theoretical considerations.

Decarbonization of shipping gains momentum: increasing ETS from 40 to 70%

However, these are not the only challenges facing maritime freight in early 2025. As of January, another phase of increasing the contribution to the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) by maritime transport – from 40% to 70% – took effect. This has increased in the ETS allowance, although the amounts still account for a small share of the total freight price. In addition to the EU ETS, the industry is trying to comply with FuelEU Maritime's regulatory requirements, which are aimed at, among other things, reducing shipping emissions by reducing the emission intensity of ships or promoting green fuels. This is not an easy task. 
We must realize that only 0.3% of ships run on methanol, while the rest still use oil or gas. Therefore, replacing the ship fleet with a less carbon-intensive one is very difficult. We are seeing the introduction of new decarbonizing technologies, but these changes are slow, take time and considerable investment. There is no doubt that ambitious decarbonization goals for maritime transportation will entail increased operating costs for all those using the sea routes.